Title: Biogenic VOC emissions in a changing world: Consequences for air quality and climate

Abstract: Accurately predicting future biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions is complicated by their strong dependence on atmospheric composition, climate, and land-use change. Existing model simulations exhibit substantial uncertainty, with discrepancies up to a factor of five and even disagreeing on the direction of change. While increasing temperature is expected to lead to higher emissions, other factors like rising carbon dioxide and deforestation point to potential decreases. This presentation will address recent scientific advances, including refined process understanding and the identification of new emission mechanisms, which suggest a trajectory of significant BVOC emission increases. The potential impacts of these increases on global scale climate and urban scale air quality will be discussed. The uncertainties associated with current predictions will be assessed and the major knowledge gaps that require further research will be identified.